Rui Wang

JOB MARKET PAPER

Correcting Second-Order Beliefs Across the Political Divide: Experimental Evidence on Climate Change Beliefs

Abstract: Misperceptions of what others think are widespread and shape how individuals form their own beliefs and take actions. On polarizing issues, the effect of correcting these misperceptions may depend on political affiliation. I examine this through a preregistered online experiment on climate change beliefs, a highly polarized issue in the United States. Using incentive-compatible methods, I elicit participants’ own beliefs and their beliefs about others’ beliefs (second-order beliefs). I then provide randomized information about others' actual beliefs from either a co-partisan or an opposing partisan source, and observe the updated beliefs and pro-climate actions. I find that correcting misperceptions in second-order beliefs affects one's own beliefs and actions about climate change, and the effects depend on whether the individual and the information source are politically aligned. Stronger pro-climate beliefs from co-partisans increase individuals’ own pro-climate beliefs and behaviors, while identical information from opposing partisans generates backlash. These results suggest that uniform social information campaigns may have a limited impact on polarized issues, while tailoring messages to match the audience’s political affiliation offers a more promising strategy for improving engagement.