Rui Wang

JOB MARKET PAPER

Correcting Second-Order Beliefs Across the Political Divide: Experimental Evidence on Climate Change Beliefs

Abstract: Misperceptions about others’ beliefs are widespread and affect individuals’ own beliefs and behaviors. On polarized issues, the effects of correcting these misperceptions may depend on political affiliation. I examine this using an online experiment on climate change beliefs in the United States, where attitudes are highly polarized. Using incentive-compatible methods, I elicit participants’ own beliefs and their beliefs about others’ beliefs (second-order beliefs). I then provide randomized information about others’ actual beliefs from either a co-partisan or an opposing partisan source, and observe their belief updating and pro-climate actions. The findings show that correcting misperceptions in second-order beliefs about climate change shifts individuals’ own beliefs and behaviors, and the effects depend on whether the individual and the information source are politically aligned. Stronger pro-climate beliefs from co-partisans increase individuals’ pro-climate beliefs and actions, while the same information from opposing partisans may generate backlash. These results suggest that uniform social information campaigns may have limited impact on polarized issues, and messages aligned with the audience’s political affiliation offer a more promising strategy for improving engagement.